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Prospective validation of the Urgent Surgery Elderly Mortality risk score (USEM).
Metadata
Journalamerican journal of surgery2.125Date
2020 May 18
4 months ago
Type
Journal Article
Volume
2020-May-18 / :
Author
Eguaras Córdoba I 1, Sánchez Acedo P 2, Herrera Cabezon J 2, Galbete Jiménez A 3, Guillen-Grima F 4
Affiliation
  • 2. Hepato-pancreato-biliary Unit, Complejo Hospitalario de Navarra, Irunlarrea s/n 31008, Pamplona, Navarra, Spain.
  • 3. Navarrabiomed-CHN-UPNA, Redissec, Spain.
  • 4. Dept of Preventive Medicine, Clinica Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; Dept of Health Sciences, Public University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; IdisNA Navarra Institute of Health Research, Pamplona, Spain; CiberOBN, Pamplona, Spain.
Doi
PMIDMESH
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: We aimed to test the predictive ability and to compare the predictive ability of the USEM to SRS, SORT and ASA in a prospective sample.
PATIENTS AND METHODS: A Prospective cohort of >65-year-old patients undergoing urgent abdominal surgery in a Hospital. Models calibration and discrimination were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.
RESULTS: A total of 500 patients with a median age of 78 years were included. The AUROC in the validation cohort was 0.824. The USEM overestimated mortality (Test Hosmer-Lemeshow p < 0.001), after recalibration the USEM provided an accurate prediction of postoperative mortality.
CONCLUSIONS: After the recalibration, the USEM had good discriminant power to estimate the risk of mortality in elderly patients after urgent abdominal surgery.
Keywords: Elderly patients Prospective validation Urgent abdominal surgery
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Am J Surgamerican journal of surgery
Metadata
LocationUnited States
FromEXCERPTA MEDICA INC-ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC

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